A common scale for
experienced suffering
Universal Suffering Units (USU) are a proposed way to estimate the scale of suffering across different experiences. A shared unit can help us compare human impact, recognize overlooked harm, and examine where attention and support could make a difference.
An early research framework, with assumptions that can be inspected and refined
Why measure suffering?
Counts tell only part
of the story
A case count tells us how many people were ill. It does not tell us how difficult the illness was, or whether it lasted hours, days, or months. The same gap appears in reports of disasters and displacement.
USU brings intensity, duration, and the number of people together in one estimate. The aim is to make the scale of lived suffering easier to understand while keeping the underlying experiences visible.
Compare impact
Look beyond counts to the burden people experience over time.
Notice overlooked harm
Make prolonged or widespread distress easier to recognize.
Inform decisions
Add a perspective on suffering to evidence about need and possible relief.
The reference
What is one USU?
A concrete starting point for a proposed common unit.
We use a defined pain profile so that the unit has a clear meaning. It is a reference window, not a claim that every kidney-stone episode is the same or that the pain ends after six hours.
With the linear weighting used in the WSI prototype, this profile totals 47.25 intensity-hours. Other modeled experiences are expressed relative to that amount.
See the six-hour reference profile
| Hours from start | Intensity | Intensity-hours |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 1 | 7.5 | 7.50 |
| 1 to 2.5 | 8.5 | 12.75 |
| 2.5 to 3.5 | 9.0 | 9.00 |
| 3.5 to 4.5 | 8.0 | 8.00 |
| 4.5 to 5 | 7.0 | 3.50 |
| 5 to 6 | 6.5 | 6.50 |
| Six-hour total | 47.25 | |
Each contribution is intensity × hours. These segment values define a stipulated reference; they are not a fitted average patient trajectory. Source: the USU preprint, reference trajectory.
Choosing a reference defines the unit. Establishing how other experiences relate to it is a separate research task.
How it works
Start with three simple inputs
The WSI prototype uses a shared average course for each condition and course type. This keeps the calculation simple enough to follow and apply consistently across events.
People or episodes
Use the reported count for a clearly defined population and time period.
Average duration
Specify how many days the included experience is assumed to last.
Average intensity
Choose a provisional 0 to 10 intensity for the whole course, including periods of relief.
The simplified linear calculation
For several distinct groups, calculate each group once and add the results. This is the simple linear version, called p = 1. More detailed research models can use time-varying profiles or other mappings, with their assumptions and reference normalization stated explicitly.
What the number includes
Experienced suffering,
within a stated scope
Every estimate needs a defined experience, population, and period. The current index covers selected parts of an event’s human impact, with exclusions stated in each report.
Suffering before death
Where data allow, a fatal illness course replaces the ordinary course for the same cases. Each case is counted once.
Deaths remain visible
Death counts and years of life lost are separate measures. USU covers experienced time, with no suffering assigned after death.
Bereavement comes later
Relatives’ grief is outside the current WSI estimates. It could be included in a future, separately defined component.
Unknown is not zero
An unestimated component may still matter greatly. The report explains where data or a defensible mapping are missing.
From framework to application
See USU used
in real event reports
This site explains the measure. The World Suffering Index applies it.
World Suffering Index
An expanding event list brings USU estimates together with reported deaths, categories, dates, and links to detailed reports. Each report shows what was counted and how the estimate was calculated.
Potential uses
Comparing defined harms, identifying neglected burden, and examining possible reductions in intensity or duration.
Evidence still needed
Reliable mappings across experiences, testing with affected people, and validation for each intended use.
A complementary perspective
One measure in a fuller picture
Health loss
DALYs combine years lived with disability and years of life lost.
Health-related quality of life
QALYs combine time lived with a weight for health-related quality.
Experienced suffering
USU estimates cumulative adverse experience relative to a stated reference.
USU can inform a discussion alongside these measures, death counts, local knowledge, and evidence about effective responses. It does not determine the value of a life or settle a policy choice.
Questions and limitations
Understanding the measure
What an estimate means, where judgment enters, and what still needs testing.
Is USU already a validated measure?
No. USU is a proposed framework, and the current event estimates are proofs of concept. Defining a reference gives the calculation a unit; it does not establish that different people or different kinds of suffering can already be compared accurately.
Intensity assignments, duration assumptions, and comparisons across experiences need empirical testing. Consistent arithmetic makes an estimate reproducible, but does not make its assumptions correct.
Why introduce a new unit?
Case counts and death tolls describe essential parts of an event, but do not combine how many people suffered, how intensely, and for how long. A common unit makes those dimensions explicit and helps readers examine harms that might receive little attention.
USU adds one perspective alongside the original indicators, clinical evidence, and the priorities of affected people. A large estimate alone does not determine which response is most effective or most urgent.
Why use kidney-stone pain as the reference?
Kidney-stone pain offers a concrete example of an intense experience over time, with a clinical literature on pain and treatment response. The reference is a specified six-hour pain profile chosen as a convention. It is not the measured average of all kidney-stone episodes.
The six-hour boundary does not imply recovery at that point. Changing only the reference rescales fixed modeled burdens by a common factor; changing how experiences are mapped can also change their relative order.
Does 2 USU mean someone felt two kidney-stone episodes?
No. It means twice the modeled cumulative burden of the reference under the declared method. It does not mean the same peak pain, the same symptoms, or a literally interchangeable experience. A longer, less intense state can accumulate more USU than a short, intense one.
How are intensity and duration chosen?
The WSI prototype uses shared representative courses for each condition and course type. Source reports establish the population count, while clinical or contextual evidence informs a plausible duration and the description of the experience. The numerical intensity remains an explicit judgment.
The average applies across the whole modeled course, including periods of relief and sleep, rather than treating peak distress as continuous. Research is also exploring direct episode and duration comparisons, symptom-based mappings, and structured expert elicitation.
Does the estimate include suffering before death?
It can, where the fatal cases belong to the population and period being modeled and a suitable course can be specified. In current WSI illness reports, the fatal course replaces the ordinary course for those cases. A terminal period is not added on top of a course that already includes it.
Death itself and years of life lost are reported separately. There is no experienced suffering after death in this framework. When the available death count cannot be matched to the modeled population, fatal suffering may remain unestimated; that does not mean it was zero.
What about grief and relatives’ suffering?
Bereavement is outside the current WSI prototype to keep the first estimates manageable. It is not excluded from the broader concept of experienced suffering. A future grief estimate would need its own population, time window, mapping, and treatment of overlap.
How are overlapping harms handled?
Several labels can describe the same person’s experience at the same time. WSI therefore starts with one combined experience course for each modeled group, rather than adding separate symptom scores. Its ordinary and fatal illness groups are mutually exclusive within the matched population.
Broader research models can use explicit rules for concurrent states, including the bounded overlap rule in the v2 preprint. That rule is a modeling convention, not an established law of experience. Separate event totals can also cover overlapping populations or periods.
Can users compare events using their USU totals?
Yes, as comparisons of the experiences actually included under the stated assumptions. A displacement estimate and an illness estimate can be examined on the same declared scale, but neither automatically covers all suffering caused by the event.
Check the population, reporting period, included experience, and method version. Partial estimates are not guaranteed lower bounds: omissions can reduce a total while overly high assumptions can increase it.
Why might a WSI report differ from a preprint example?
They are different applications of the framework. The published v2 examples use intensity and duration distributions and a nonlinear weighting option, p = 1.25. The WSI prototype uses a simple linear calculation, p = 1, with shared average courses.
Population snapshots, reporting periods, and treatment of fatal cases may also differ. The older research examples below retain their original labels and figures so they are not mistaken for current WSI estimates.
Could many mild experiences outweigh severe suffering among fewer people?
Yes. Adding burden across people and time can produce that result. A total should therefore be read alongside severity, duration, affected groups, death counts, and other relevant information.
USU does not measure human worth, rights, fairness, happiness, or the full value of a life. It cannot by itself resolve ethical choices about whose needs deserve attention.
Could USU be used clinically or for non-human animals?
Those would require separate validation. The current framework is not a validated clinical instrument and should not replace patient-reported outcomes or professional assessment.
The present reference and examples are human-centered. Applying a similar structure to other species would require species-specific evidence and animal-welfare expertise; human and non-human estimates should not be combined by default.
How can researchers inspect or improve the work?
Start with the published preprint and its supplementary materials, and the WSI event method. WSI reports expose their source counts, course assumptions, calculation components, and exclusions.
Useful next steps include testing whether people understand the reference, collecting experience comparisons, examining mapping stability across groups, and checking whether conclusions change under plausible alternatives. Please get in touch with corrections or research ideas.
Research and materials
Read the methods,
inspect the assumptions
The unit, the mapping of experiences, and a particular application are different parts of the work.
Denis Mikhaylov. Universal Suffering Units (USU): A Calibrated Additive Unit of Experienced Suffering. Preprints.org. DOI: 10.20944/preprints202511.1315.v2.
The v2 supplementary materials, available through the preprint, include the reference profile, state catalogue, worked spreadsheets, and reproduction code. The preprint and those materials are licensed under CC BY 4.0. Terms for other releases are stated with each release.
Current research direction
The revised manuscript develops candidate ways to map experiences to the reference, including episode and duration matching, symptom-based mappings, and structured expert elicitation. It distinguishes a stipulated unit from empirical calibration. These approaches still require testing with participants; the preprint linked above is the publicly available v2.
Earlier worked examples from preprint v2
These are research demonstrations using intensity and duration distributions with p = 1.25. They are preserved here as v2 results, not as current WSI event estimates.
Brazil dengue, weeks 1 to 23 of 2024
75.9 million USU
90% model uncertainty interval: 46.9 to 112.9 million.
7,866,769 reported cases, split into non-severe and severe illness profiles.
Rio Grande do Sul displacement, end-June 2024
25.6 million USU
90% model uncertainty interval: 13.0 to 42.8 million.
An approximately 389,000-person displacement stock with assumed intensity and duration distributions.
The WSI prototype uses different course assumptions and may use different population snapshots. It also applies linear weighting and explicitly reviews fatal-illness coverage. Compare results only after checking these differences. See the v2 preprint for the original methods and limitations.
Contact
Help improve the measure
USU and the World Suffering Index are developed by Denis Mikhaylov, an independent researcher based in California. Questions, corrections, and research collaborations are welcome.